The rumored involvement of the Volkswagen Group (VAG) in F1 is nothing new, and here we are again on the precipice of an F1 entry from at least 1 of the automaker's premier brands. Any addition of new manufacturers is certainly going to shake up the F1 landscape a bit, but what is the best possible outcome?...
One or two brands?
To me, it seems off that after years of complaining that F1 was too expensive to enter with one brand, that VW would double down and add two brands, but that seems to be the leading theory at the moment. I'd say the more the merrier, so long as VW can keep costs under control. It seems fairly certain that of the group's brands, Audi and Porsche are the leading candidates, which makes sense as they probably have the most motorsport history of any VW brands and would not be out of place among Mercedes, Ferrari, Alpine, Aston Martin, and Alfa Romeo when it comes to road car competition. Ideally, both brands would enter the sport.
Who's going where?
I think that the ideal setup for F1 is to have each engine manufacturer have a singular customer or "partner" team, so 2 teams per engine if you count the "works" team. At the moment, Mercedes supplies 4 teams, Ferrari 3 teams, Honda/Red Bull 2 teams, and Renault just 1. If Andretti joins the fray as rumored before 2025, then Alpine would likely have 2 teams, with 11 in total. Honda is out the door and only sticking around due to the engine freeze, so they are out of the question for 2025/26. So where do the new VW brands and engines go?
Porsche
I'd expect Porsche to join Red Bull and nicely slot in to the Red Bull Powertrains setup being constructed in Milton Keynes. This would make Red Bull the second team (besides Ferrari) to have its engine and chassis manufacturing in the same location, and a true works team. I'd expect AlphaTauri to follow the same lead as the parent team, so that would give Porsche its two teams.
Audi
This is more of a long, long, long shot, but hear me out. Audi should take over the Alfa Romeo/Sauber team to become its own works operation. Alfa Romeo has never really been super committed to its sponsorship of Sauber, and there are no guarantees it will renew its investment through 2025. Sauber has excellent facilities, bankrolled by BMW during its previous (race-winning) German-works-team era, and without the Alfa Romeo connection, there is little reason to have Ferrari power. Alfa Romeo has already moved away from the 'customer' model, and now make their own gearbox (albeit with some Ferrari parts) and suspension, so they are trending in this direction.
Who should be the second team for Audi? Well look no further than VW motorsport legend Jost Capito and Williams. Williams is already teeming with ex-VW people, including CEO and Team Principal Jost Capito and technical leader Francois-Xavier 'FX' Demaison. Surely it couldn't be a huge stretch to see a big VW reunion on the cards. Williams could even be offered equal works support if Capito is savvy enough and still held in high regard by VW (as well as still being the TP at Williams in three years). Audi could even split the branding between Williams and Sauber, with one "Audi" and one "e-tron" or some other sub-brand developed over the next few years. I'm thinking Williams could be to Sauber what Venturi is to Mercedes in Formula E; a second team but with technical parity to the main team.
Renault
Assuming "El Plan" doesn't get horribly derailed and Renault pulls the plug, then we would expect the Renault engine to power the works Alpine team for the foreseeable future. Rumor has it that any Andretti entry into F1 would likely come with Renault power, so assuming that happens (not a guarantee by any means), that would leave Renault with its first engine customer since McLaren in 2020.
Ferrari
Ferrari will, of course, maintain its works status, and would likely continue with Haas as its partner team. With Haas building a new engineering office at Maranello, it's hard to see them going anywhere else.
Mercedes
Besides the works team, Mercedes is an interesting one, because it has two customer teams in Aston Martin and McLaren who each could make their own engine, or at least easily find a new supplier if they wanted. I think that of the two customer teams, Aston Martin is the more likely to take the next step into making its own engine, although I believe that McLaren would have a higher probability of success, given they already do more in-house than Aston does. It's a coin flip, but let's say Lawrence Stroll gets impatient with a slightly underpowered Merc engine from 2022-2025 and decides to throw even more money at a new engine facility.
That leaves, out of a potential 11 teams (assuming Andretti makes the cut), 5 works teams each serving a customer team and Aston Martin as the lone wolf, which definitely seems plausible.
Possible alternatives
The leading theory is that Red Bull and Porsche will hook up as described above, but that Audi is looking at McLaren as its partner. There seems to be a general consensus that Audi want to buy McLaren outright, not just the F1 team but the whole company, which I think would be a shame, and that they would have to offer an exorbitant amount of money to do so.
Instead, maybe they will set up their own team, based in Germany, because even though it would cost $200 million for an entry fee, buying McLaren for probably $600-$700 million and inheriting a shaky automotive manufacturer doesn't seem any more cost-effective.
What do you think? Should VW even join F1? Should they bring one or two brands? If so, who should they pair up with?
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