You thought I forgot. I thought I forgot. But here we are on the eve of the Bahrain GP to make a bunch of "educated" guesses about F1 this upcoming season...
Last year, many felt Ferrari would finally do it and win the title. However, I did correctly predict that Ferrari couldn't keep up a title challenge, and that Max Verstappen would walk away with the crown as Mercedes struggled to get to grips with its car. The rest of the predictions? Well, they could have been a touch more accurate...
But that was last year. This year, I don't think anyone's going to be quite so bold as to predict a Ferrari title win. Sensationalism is out (at least on this site), realism is in. We've had three days of testing, learned some things, not necessarily all of them useful; but now it's show time. So let's go in reverse order of what I think the each championship will be, based on not a lot more than just my general perception from testing and some good old intuition. Plus a few specific predictions that don't fit the mold at the end.
Constructor's Championship
10. Williams
If they finish any higher than this, that's be either a great job by them or a colossal screw-up from one of the teams ahead. I think the car will be better this year than last year, and incoming American rookie Logan Sargeant is definitely an upgrade on Nicholas Latifi, but not enough to make up for the gap between Williams and the next best car.
9. Haas
Like last year, I want this team to be higher than this, but I don't know if I could put them any higher than eighth. I put them ninth, because we all know if you keep your expectations low, then it's hard to be disappointed. The car looked the most anonymous in testing when it comes to on-track behavior; it's not the slowest in any corner type, it's not particularly draggy, it's not particularly unstable, but it doesn't look to really have any standout qualities. This means there could be a lot of P11-14 finishes, which unfortunately gets the same amount of points as 20th: a clean zero.
8. AlphaTauri
I could see them also finishing ninth, because their car looks to be lacking quite a bit of downforce, and I don't have a lot of confidence in Yuki Tsunoda and rookie Nyck de Vries compared to the Haas drivers, but their car is such a slight evolution of last year that they surely have a big scope for development throughout the season, something Haas is particularly bad at. But the season may be dominated by whispers of a possible team sale more than any of their on-track exploits. It will at least be interesting to see if Tsunoda or de Vries is team leader.
7. McLaren
Last year, McLaren looked particularly bad at the first race, but somehow managed to make it to the podium only a few races later. This year, the mood in the team is worse than this time last year, and although their pre-season test wasn't quite the shambles it was 12 months ago, I think they will be in for a slow start. But they will be better in the second half of the season, even if they won't be able to catch up to the teams in front in terms of points. I don't think rookie Oscar Piastri is going to provide quite the step forward from Daniel Ricciardo that many are hoping he will be, but more on that later.
6. Alfa Romeo
Could they be beaten by McLaren by the end of the year? Yes, but Alfa Romeo looked like the better version of Haas on track, meaning there wasn't any inherent problem visible. I think Zhou will be better than last year, the car looks more reliable—an Achilles heel of the 2022 car—and I think they have done a much better job of improving their car over the winter than McLaren have. I expect them to have a pretty good start to the year, and although they may fall back a bit as the year goes on, they will be in the hunt for points on most weekends.
5. Alpine
The "French" team looked like a mess at testing, in the sense that they completed the second-least amount of laps, the car looked somewhere between slightly tricky to drive and borderline undriveable, and they didn't even try half of the available tire compounds. But then everyone within the team says testing was great, they've hit or exceeded all their engineering targets over the winter, and are extremely confident of a good season. Last year they looked arguably worse in testing and still finished fourth, so I doubt they would be any worse than fifth.
4. Aston Martin
No, I am not drinking the green Kool-Aid. Although they will be better than last year, they aren't going to be beating Mercedes and Ferrari like many think they might. Could Fernando Alonso finish in the top 6 in the championship? Yes, but I don't think Lance Stroll could beat any of the top 6 drivers, so they won't be higher than fourth. All of this hype comes from an extremely promising race simulation in testing (which is hard to fake given you pretty much need maximum fuel to complete the race) where they looked to be only a bit off the pace of Red Bull(!), and ahead of Ferrari and Mercedes. But I don't think that's going to be the case most of the time this year. Still a good improvement on 2022, though.
3. Ferrari
Last year, Ferrari almost lost second place to Mercedes, despite winning two of the first three races on merit and a couple more later on. This year Ferrari looks a bit further from the front, and Mercedes looks a bit closer, which I think will be enough for Mercedes to beat them to second this time around. New team boss Fred Vasseur will need to see the inevitable operational failures play out before making the inevitable big changes, so I feel they may be treading water a bit on that front in 2023.
2. Mercedes
Are they back? Are they? Will Mercedes win the title? No. But they will be better than in 2022, even if they will still be a ways off the front. My logic here is that if Mercedes and Ferrari produce relatively equal cars, Mercedes is typically operationally sharper and arguably has two better drivers, which should give them the edge over the Scuderia.
1. Red Bull
It can't be any other team. Verstappen is shaping up to have one of those Lewis Hamilton-type dominating seasons, like 2019 or 2020. Pérez was the fastest in testing, despite looking like he was out for a Sunday drive. They looked imperilous over the three days of pre-season running, there have been essentially zero complaints from either driver, and there's no clear weakness in any part of the team. All you need to know is that in the official F1 press conference pre-season, when asked where the 2023 car is better than the 2022 car (which won 17 races), Verstappen replied "Everywhere."
Driver's Championship
20. Logan Sargeant
This says more about Williams' lack of pace rather than anything directly related to Sargeant's ability. I think he will be a good step forward from Latifi (admittedly a low bar to clear), but it's hard to see more than a few points coming back to the land of the free and the home of the brave, unfortunately.
19. Yuki Tsunoda
Surprised to see him down here? Maybe you're right to. But personally, I don't think Tsunoda has the work ethic or technical feedback of more experienced drivers (such as his teammate, for example) to become a team leader and he is under real pressure this year with seemingly 7,000 Red Bull and Honda junior drivers waiting in the wings to take his seat. It's time to get going or get out, and I think you can tell what side of that debate I fall on.
18. Alex Albon
I think Albon will have a good season, and with Williams a smidge closer to the front compared to 2022, there is a potential for some big results. If Nyck de Vries can finish ninth in the 2022 car at Monza despite never having done an F1 race before, Albon could easily have been P7 or better. The Williams might not have the downforce, but it doesn't have the drag either, so it could be pretty potent on some of the high-speed tracks.
17. Nico Hulkenberg
Guess who's back. Back again. No, it's not the real Slim Shady, it's Nicoooo Huuuulkenberg, here to finish P11 about 10 times this season which could prove mildly frustrating but otherwise won't be that remarkable one way or another. I have him behind his teammate because I think Magnussen can pull off some crazy random performances which might just net a few good positions, even if Hulkenberg might be the more consistent.
16. Kevin Magnussen
Compared to his teammate, Magnussen will probably have the higher highs and the lower lows, but overall will just edge out Hulkenberg due to a few one-off good races. Look for Austria in particular, where Magnussen has qualified in the top 8 in 3 of his last 5 races there. Haas seems to do pretty good on sprint race weekends, where Magnussen scored points each time last year.
15. Nyck de Vries
Although de Vries is a rookie, he is already a two-time world champion (technically, F2 and Formula E), and is five years older than his "experienced" teammate Tsunoda. By all accounts de Vries is a workaholic who I can see doing a lot more to push this team forward than Yuki can, and he could spring a few surprises because of that.
14. Oscar Piastri
He might be the next Verstappen or Leclerc, but I don't think he's going to be that at McLaren; a team with a tendency to build cars that only Lando Norris can maximize, and even then Norris doesn't care much for their handling characteristics. This has every making of a baptism of fire, and maybe he'll benefit from McLaren having a possible slow start, so that if he does get on Lando's pace, he is not miles behind him in the championship.
13. Zhou Guanyu
F1's first and only Chinese driver gave a fair account of himself last year, although the standings made him look worse than it was, since he was still a bit off of Bottas' pace when a) the Alfa Romeo was really good last year, and b) the Alfa Romeo kept breaking down last year. This meant that by the time he was closer to his teammate, the car was notably worse, even if he did reach the finish more often. This year he doesn't have the rookie excuse, and the car looks a little more reliable, so it's shaping up to be a more representative season.
12. Pierre Gasly
Last time he left AlphaTauri/Toro Rosso, things did not go well. While they may be better this time 'round, I don't think he's going to be able to match his teammate this year, and he does have a bit of a penchant for crunching front wings. I don't think this will be the revolutionary move of the year that many have predicted.
11. Lando Norris
If McLaren is not careful, Lando Norris could very well say "enough is enough" and up and leave if he's not given a good enough car. If they don't give him a good car, the press will have a field day with McLaren fans and Drive to Survive fans eating up stories of tension at the team. If they do deliver, this prediction will be wrong, McLaren will have a good year, and we will all live happily ever after.
10. Valtteri Bottas
At the moment, Bottas looks to be reinventing himself as a laid-back guy who is enjoying every second of his world travels and his job. If he can keep the good vibes going, he could very well repeat his pattern from last year of snapping up good results at the start of the season, when Alfa is likely their most competitive.
9. Lance Stroll
Lance's season could go one of two ways: staying right on the heels of his teammate and producing impressively consistent results like the first half of 2020, or trailing his teammate constantly and ultimately holding the team back, like the second half of 2020. I fear the latter, but it would be far more interesting to see the former.
8. Esteban Ocon
He finished here last year, and I look for a repeat to be on the cards for 2023, with Ocon probably racking up a bunch of P7 or P8 finishes without making a huge fuss, unless he's running into his teammate, which he does seem to have a bit of a knack for.
7. Fernando Alonso
Everybody knows that when Fernando Alonso is at the sharp end, he is absolutely box office to watch. On track, he has the tenacity of Max Verstappen and off track, he has the cunning of a professional politician. He is the ageless wonder, and maybe, just maybe, he has finally made a good career choice and will finish best of the rest.
6. Carlos Sainz
If I think Ferrari will finish behind Mercedes, and that Carlos Sainz will probably finish behind LEclerc, then it only makes sense that he has to finish P6. I think he will have quite a lonely year, although he may just get to have some on track battles with his idol Alonso if he get's lucky (or unlucky, if the car is no good).
5. George Russell
Last year, undeniably, George Russell beat Lewis Hamilton over the course of a season. But I don't think that he is going to do the same again, because Hamilton does tend to find an extra gear when there is an opportunity in front of him, and there will be more opportunities in 2023 compared to 2022.
4. Charles Leclerc
Leclerc may fall victim, like many at Ferrari did before him, to a slow decline in competitiveness as the season progresses. If this happens, I don't see him keeeping in touch with the Red Bulls, and by the second half of the year, not even Hamilton's Mercedes, even if he builds up enough of a gap over Russell to stay ahead over the season.
3. Lewis Hamilton
Mercedes will usurp Ferrari as the closest challenger by the end of the season, and with a car that is more compliant (even if it's not necessarily faster) than last year's, Lewis will be closer to his winning ways. But he won't unfortunately, be close enough to keep up with the two drivers ahead (or at least one of them).
2. Sergio Pérez
Look at Valtteri Bottas' 2020 season in comparison to Lewis Hamilton. That is more or less what Checo can expect to get out of this year, and hey, a few race wins and some good dicing with the teams behind will provide some fun, right?
1. Max Verstappen
Am I a Max Verstappen fan? Not really, but I can admire his talent, which will be more than enough when joined with the power of the RB19 to seal his third consecutive world championship. Hopefully this time he will know when he's actually won it, rather than the last two times, which were a tad more, um, controversial.
10 One-Off Predictions
McLaren will lose one driver at the end of the season
Despite both drivers being under contract, I foresee a sort of Punnett square, with "McLaren delivering a good car" on one axis, and "Piastri matching or beating Norris" on another. Therefore, there is a 75% chance that at least one of these is wrong, which would greatly increase the chance of a driver change incoming for 2025.
22 different drivers will contest races
Most of the time "reserve drivers" are not needed, but in the age of COVID they have become more prevalent, and each of the last three years has had at least one make an appearance. This year I feel we will see at least 2. Who will they be? Too random to tell.
The Hamilton-Russell relationship will hit a few bumps
We've seen it before; when the car isn't winning often, it's very easy to get along with your teammate. If the Mercedes does come good, it will be very difficult to prevent at least some level of acrimony down at Mercedes' driver debriefs at some point.
This year's F2 champion will not get an F1 contract, but another F2 driver will
It's happened with Piastri and with 2022 champion Felipe Drugovich, so it's not that bold, but it would be weird for the F2 champion to miss out on a seat for three years in a row considering the 2016, '17, '18, and 2020 champion did.
Mohammed Ben Sulayem will be replaced as FIA president before the final race
After causing quite a stir in the offseason by talking about Andretti's F1 bid and also possibly interfering with negotiations between F1's current owners and a prospective buyer, MBS has been quiet and stepped back from day-to-day F1 operations. But I reckon he's got a few more controversies in him, culminating either in a resignation or outright dismissal.
Fernando Alonso will be on the podium at the Spanish Grand Prix
Spain will be sent into raptures if this is the case. Sure, Carlos Sainz has the better chance at it given he's with Ferrari, but the Spanish people seem to prefer Alonso just that bit more, and he could pull out some wizardry on home soil.
The Las Vegas GP will be a disaster
I don't know what exactly is going to qualify as a disaster, but I'll know it when I see it. F1's spent a lot of money on this event, and it's not exactly got me brimming with confidence given the borderline shambles we saw in Miami last year. Vegas will be 10x more unbearable, and whether it's the track or some other aspect, something is just primed to go terribly wrong.
Drive to Survive will not be renewed for Season 7
We already know season 6 was greenlit along season 5 (which aired just recently), but there's only so much drama and intrigue you can conjure up without either a) becoming stale, or b) just making up things that are blatantly wrong. They've seemed to stray away from b) a bit with S5, but at some point we've got to hit the point of diminishing returns. Unless, of course, we add a new team...
F1 will not add any new teams for 2026 (or any other year)
Michael Andretti has been on a crusade to enter F1 for a long time, and has not gotten very far. In fact, it seems like if anything he has made it harder for him and anyone else by forcing the teams to rethink whether or not they should raise the barrier to entry, which they seem very likely to do. A blow to the neutral race fan, this one.
Williams will run a Gulf livery, twice
We all wanted to see it when Williams announced Gulf Oil as a partner for 2023 and beyond, but the FW45 instead sports the usual dark blue colors of Williams, But in an effort to draw attention at Miami and Las Vegas, they will run a Gulf livery like McLaren did in 2021 at Monaco, and this will be heralded as the best livery of the year because it is an iconic look.
Got any interesting predictions of your own? Drop them below.
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