Ah, Ferrari. The team everybody wants to love and everybody loves to hate. This year has been headlined by a comedy of errors from all sides, leading to Red Bull running away in both championships. But how many points have they really lost?
Where things stand
Right now, Max Verstappen has a 63 point lead over the best Ferrari of Charles Leclerc in the driver's championship. Red Bull has an 82-point lead over Ferrari in the constructor's championship. After the French GP, Verstappen said the points gap was "bigger than it should be" over Leclerc, and he's right. Arguably, you can make a case to say that there shouldn't be a gap at all. Perhaps even a deficit.
Let's go race-by-race and see just how many points the drivers, the strategists, and the ever-reliable Ferrari engine have thrown away. We're looking just at the team here, not individual drivers. I'm not going to adjust Red Bull's tally, but ultimately just know that they should probably have less points than they do now. We'll leave all of Red Bull's lost points exactly as they were, because almost all of them come directly from reliability problems rather than driver or team error.
Bahrain
Points lost: 0
Reasons: N/A
Total points loss so far: 0
Oh, how they fooled us all. Ferrari executed the Bahrain GP with surgical precision, and even benefitted from Red Bull's reliability snafu near the finish. It looked like the Scuderia was back and ready to turn the page from their previous reputation of driver and strategic mismanagement. Red Bull's on the ropes, we said. This is Ferrari's year. Some people thought the championship was already getting out of hand. But we all underestimated the lengths Ferrari would go to to shoot themselves in the foot.
Saudi Arabia
Points lost: 0
Reasons: N/A
Total points loss so far: 0
Again, the team more or less maximized their weekend. the Red Bull was ever so slightly the faster car in Jeddah, and Sergio Perez could very well have won the race if it weren't for the unfortunate safety car. If anything, Ferrari turned what could have been a 2-4 into a 2-3. Could they have won the race? Maybe. For sure, though, there were bigger blunders to come. Much bigger.
Australia
Points lost: 15
Reasons: Driver error (SAI)
Total points loss so far: 15
Leclerc disappeared into the distance down under, while Red Bull struggled. Meanwhile, Carlos Sainz had what can best be described as a "scrappy" qualifying session, where a series of unfortunate events (and sloppy driving) left him only ninth in Q3. A poor start saw him fall out of the top 10, but in his eagerness to reclaim position, he spun out of the race on lap 2. Given Verstappen's eventual DNF, he could have at least finished third. Second if qualifying had been smooth.
Emilia-Romagna
Points lost: 7
Reasons: Driver error (LEC)
Total points loss so far: 22
On a weekend where the Red Bull was clearly better over a race distance, Ferrari could at best hope for a 2-4 in both the Sprint™ and the full race. It did that on Saturday, but on Sunday Sainz was nerfed by Ricciardo at the first corner, which was not his fault, so I won't count that here. Leclerc, on the other hand, was beaten off the line by Perez and ran third until a bizarre decision to pit again for soft tires late on. He quickly caught back up to the Red Bull, but then clumsily spun out in pursuit. He eventually finished P6, although he got really lucky to finish at all.
Miami
Points lost: 0
Reasons: N/A
Total points loss so far: 22
Again, a weekend where the Red Bull was slightly faster on Sunday, so realistically we can expect a Ferrari 2-3 even when they had a front row lockout. They ended up with a 2-3, although it could have been a 2-4 if Perez had properly executed his overtake on Sainz. A solid weekend, if not spectacular.
Spain
Points lost: 31
Reasons: Reliability (LEC), Driver error (SAI)
Total points loss so far: 53
And then, the wheels came off. Leclerc's hopes literally went up in smoke when his Ferrari engine gave up the fight around halfway, costing him a nailed-on win. And on a weekend where the Ferrari was clearly the fastest car, where was Carlos? Where you'd expect him to be. In the gravel. On a day when Max Verstappen, a man who these days very rarely ever makes mistakes, makes an unforced error, this was an open goal for Sainz. But not to be outdone, he also spun (before Max) and cost himself any chance of a win. An easy Red Bull 1-2 when it could have gone the other way.
Monaco
Points lost: 13
Reasons: Strategy (LEC)
Total points loss so far: 66
At a track where qualifying defines everything, only a true Ferrari disasterclass could turn a front row lockout into a 2-4 on Sunday, in a race that wasn't even the full length. At the end of the day, Red Bull and Sergio Perez hoodwinked the Scuderia not once but twice on the day, managing to jump first Leclerc and then Sainz. Verstappen also got ahead of Leclerc to make matters worse.
Azerbaijan
Points lost: 30
Reasons: Reliability (LEC & SAI)
Total points loss so far: 96
Spain was bad, but Baku was arguably worse. On a day where Red Bull was arguably the faster car (although Leclerc got pole, he got beaten at the start by Perez), Ferrari again looked like it was probably going to be another 2-4. And after only a dozen or so laps, Sainz's car gave out with a hydraulic failure. Admittedly, they actually tried a pretty good strategy to get Leclerc back ahead, but before we could see this play out his car also broke down while in the lead. I think Red Bull still would have won, but we will never know.
Canada
Points lost: 15
Reasons: Reliability (LEC)
Total points loss so far: 111
I'm putting this loss under reliability because Leclerc started last after having to change his engine due to reliability issues from the previous races. I'm not a fan of the double-jeopardy approach to engine penalties, but it's the same for all. He came back to finish fifth, but in reality the Ferrari was the faster car on Sunday. Even though Sainz finished second, you can't help but think that either a) he should have overtaken Verstappen, or b) Leclerc would have if he had started at the front. Either way it should have been an easy double podium, considering Perez didn't even finish the race.
Great Britain
Points lost: 6
Reasons: Strategy (LEC)
Total points loss so far: 117
Following from the pattern of Monaco, Ferrari's strategic mastery was in full effect in Great Britain. Given Verstappen was essentially out of the equation after running over pieces of an AlphaTauri which damaged his car, and Perez having to pit after lap 1 for a broken front wing (admittedly caused by Leclerc) Ferrari should have bagged an easy 1-2. Instead it floundered with team orders until Hamilton got close enough to force their hand, and then they completely screwed up the safety car strategy. Instead Sainz got gifted the win and Leclerc could do no better than fourth. 1-2 became 1-4 for seemingly no reason.
Austria
Points lost: 18
Reasons: Reliability (SAI)
Total points loss so far: 135
On course for a sure-fire second place, Sainz's engine spectacularly exploded in the closing laps, costing the team more valuable points. And to compound the issue, these failures would surely lead to a grid penalty in...
France
Points lost: 30
Reasons: Driver error (LEC), Reliability (SAI)
Total points loss so far: 165
Starting from the back of the grid on a rare occurrence when Sainz looked to be the better Ferrari driver, he could not realistically hope to win the race. He did, however, get screwed over by the team in terms of strategy and a poor pit stop which gave him a penalty for an unsafe release. Surely he could have been at least third, but he finished fifth. But the real kicker was Leclerc, who put his car in the fence while on his own, in the lead, in a race that would have at least gone down to the wire. This will likely be seen as the point of no return for the team's WDC chances.
Summary
As I said at the start, Ferrari is down 82 points to Red Bull. They have lost (debatably) 165 points, meaning they could be at least 83 points ahead of Red Bull. If you consider the fact that Red Bull would have less points, then the Scuderia would be well over 100 points clear. Unbelievable when you consider the fact that, in reality, any hopes of a championship are more or less over.
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