Monaco is a unique race, one which can offer a shock result if a certain team gets its sums right and hits the jackpot on strategy. Can we see something similar this year?
What does Spain have to do with Monaco?
Most years, the Monaco GP comes right after the Spanish GP in Barcelona. The importance in this is that the nature of the Barcelona track lends us to a preview of what is to come, thanks to its tight and twisty final sector. The Monaco circuit is unique among modern F1 tracks, because it is made up of mostly low and medium speed corners, with only two very short straightaways. This means teams come packing maximum downforce, because the drag penalty is very low.
Spain's final sector has always been used as an "unofficial" preview of a car's competitiveness in Monte Carlo, because it is made up of two long, low-to-medium speed corners, an off-cambered turn into a low-speed chicane, and a traction zone with hard acceleration. No straights, fairly aggressive kerbs, and direction changes are the name of the game, kind of like in Monaco. So, by reading into the performance of the cars through sector 3 in qualifying in Barcelona, we should get a pretty good idea of who is fast and who is not. Will it be 100% accurate? No, but nothing ever is, and this is what we've got available, so we have to make due.
What do the numbers say?
Here's the official sector times from the FIA after qualifying was completed in Spain last week:
Well, unsurprisingly we can see that Charles Leclerc leads the times, and there is no reason to think he won't be in the fight at least in Monaco (if you don't believe in the Leclerc Monaco curse). Likewise Sainz and Verstappen are close behind. But look who's in fourth: Valtteri Bottas in the Alfa Romeo, ahead of Perez, and also ahead of the two Mercedes. And there's even more cause for optimism if we narrow the window even more, to just the last three corners in Barcelona (removing the two medium-speed sweepers that are the least indicative of Monaco). @FormulaStats_ on twitter has posted the following excellent comparison:
Here, we see that the Alfa Romeo is actually the fastest car of all through the chicane and the run to the finish line! Why is this the case? Well, the Alfa Romeo is the shortest car on the grid (by a decent margin, too), which means it can change direction faster at low speeds. This usually comes at the cost of high-speed stability, but good news for the Sauber-run team is that there aren't really any high-speed corners in Monaco.
So are you saying Alfa Romeo are the favorites?
No, we're not there yet. I still fully expect Ferrari and Red Bull to lock out at least the front row, as they still have a pace advantage over Alfa in every other type of corner. But, if Sainz and/or Perez doesn't get their lap together in qualifying, then I would absolutely not be surprised to see Bottas steal a place on row 2 of the grid. Also, driver confidence and comfort is absolutely essential around the streets of Monaco, with maximum commitment needed to extract the last few tenths of pace. That being said, I think you'd struggle to find a driver on the grid with more confidence in their car than Bottas right now, who looks like a man reborn and is happier and arguably driving better than ever.
Of course, there is much more to success around Monaco than being fast in one specific type of corner. We only have to remember last year, when Bottas had a three-day pit stop because of a problem with the wheel nuts. But let's just say I wouldn't be surprised to see more red on the podium than just the Ferraris...
Anything else we can take from this?
Well, Mercedes struggled compared to their immediate rivals in sector 3, as they were behind Alfa, Ferrari, Red Bull, McLaren, and Haas(!) to only be sixth. Now I don't think that the Silver Arrows will qualify 12th and 13th next week, but I think they might struggle to match their pace that they had in Spain, especially because they haven't always gone well in Monaco. But who knows? That famous casino is right there, and someone might just pull an upset.
Good Read